Energy future of the world and Nepal’s energy
scenario
By Ramhari Poudyal
“Our goal here is to fundamentally change the
way the world uses energy. The goal is a complete transformation of the entire
energy infrastructure of the world.”
-
E Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla & Chairman of Solar
City, May 2015
In many countries, the future of energy is now
at the very top of the agenda. Demand for electrical power is growing
three times as fast as the world’s population. By 2030, global electricity
requirements could increase by two-thirds as illustrated in figure below. At the same time, the challenges facing
energy markets could scarcely vary more. While energy demand is increasing,
cost-efficiency and, in some cases, climate protection are at the top of the
agenda in most industrial countries. In all economies, however, sustainability
and efficiency are essential as illustrated in below energy matrix.
Source [1] BP, Renewable Energy – 2015 in Review
Figure above illustrates that the World Energy
Consumption 1990 – 2040 by OECD and Non – OECD Countries, where we can see very
clearly booming towards Non – OECD Countries.
Necessity of
Energy mix:
“To make an energy fix, We need an
energy mix.”
- - BP Slogan
Each energy sources has its own advantages and disadvantages,
however, we have to try them together to
ensure sustainable future for energy customers around the world. Traditional
source of energy like Oil, Coal and Gas could run out in the next century.
Unless alternative sources are found and start to adopt the energy mix. World
needs to find a way to produce more electricity in a cleaner, greener way if we
don’t want to suffer an energy crisis in the very near future.
Nepal’s electricity demands are
currently met by energy generated 99%
from hydro power, which is not an energy mix. By finding the right mix of energy
sources, Nepal can balance out the strengths and weaknesses of each individual
source. We believe that the largest part of the mix must be hydro power since
Nepal has estimated 45,000 MW of technically feasible hydro power including
over 100 MW of micro hydro power. 2100
MW of solar power, 3000 MW of wind power and Similarly, it is estimated that
1.1 million domestic bio-gas plants can be developed in the country[2]. so we
have to harness energy from various sources equally for future reliability.
Ironically, despite having that much energy mix Nepal is suffering long load
shedding every day.
To
meet the growing electricity demand, imports from India have increased over the
last 15 years. In 2014 – 15, Electricity imports from India accounted for 27%
of total energy supply in Nepal. Therefore, investments in hydro power can help
the country address its crippling power shortage problem, and can be best addressed by the private
sector in the immediate and medium – term future given the financial
limitations of Nepal Electricity Authority and the Government of Nepal[3]. I
would like to argue that, history of Hydro power development is really sluggish.
Most of the projects have been delayed on their promised scheduled. Political
corruption and financial inabilities are the main reason behind it. Table below
shows some projects Time overrun situation. As most of the donor funded
projects tend not only to incur time overruns, but also cost overruns.
In
addition, Inadequate planning and investment in generation, transmission, and
distribution, delays in project implementation due to the lack of adequate
legal and regulatory frameworks to resolve land acquisition, and rights of way
and forest clearance processes have hampered the development of hydro
resources, resulting in the severe underdevelopment of energy
infrastructure[4].
Furthermore, most of the hydro power projects
are Run of River type which depends on the monsoon and flow of river so in dry
season, they only produce below half of their capacity. Kulekhani I and II,
totaling 92 MW, is the only storage project in Nepal. Nepal should have
developed more storage type Hydro Power, however, which is obviously very
costly and time consuming.
The
main reason behind this time and cost overruns is mostly due to NEA’s
centralized and prolonged procurement processes, to ghost contractors leaving
work to be executed by inexperienced and technically and financially weak local
contractors, low project readiness at project approval, weak project management
capacity of NEA [5].
Moreover,
deferred investment in electricity infrastructure has caused severe power cuts
compelling industrial and commercial entities to operate costly generators. The
import of petroleum products exceeds total exports and thereby is a major
reason for the country’s large trade deficit. In the absence of cost – based
tariff adjustment for the last three years, the financial health of the NEA has
deteriorated making it unable to invest in infrastructure to meet the rising
demand for electricity. The total losses of NEA at present have reached NPR 27
billion despite the government written off NPR 27 billion in 2011 [6].
In this
situation, Nepal should have to think seriously about their energy mix. As
Nepal have plenty of other renewable energy resources as shown in the table
above. Nepal should have to invest in PV solar, Wind turbine, small hydro and
Bio mass simultaneously with big hydro project for long run solution as PV and
Biomass can help to maintain present energy crisis very quickly. As renewable
energy sources in power generation continued to increase in 2015, reaching 2.8%
of global energy consumption, up from 0.8% a decade ago. At the individual
country level, RE sources are already playing a vital role in some countries.
Denmark leads, with 66% of power coming from renewable, followed by Portugal
with 30%. Among the larger EU economies, the renewables share is 27% in
Germany, 24% in Spain, and 23% in both Italy and the UK [1].
Renewable
Energy implementation and projects are needed to be promoted by the government
of Nepal. These projects require Renewable Energy Technology procedure to sell
their energy. The GoN must be lenient to introduce an investment friendly RET
as Nepal has a great potential in Solar PV, Wind Energy, small Hydro and
Biomass. Energy Efficiency measure should be implemented very seriously. Nepal
should invest huge amount on modern infrastructure to save T&D losses. In
successful measuring energy efficiency performance to raise industrial
efficiency, government can play several important roles and should be
especially aware of its influence on policy development and data collection.
Proper use of measuring energy efficiency performance, international sharing of
policy information and practical cooperation with industries are critical to the
society –wide conservation of energy.
Nevertheless,
Nepal’s energy problems are arguably rooted more in shortages of governance
than of pure supply. The energy sector suffers from widespread inefficiencies,
including transmission and distribution (T&D) losses that exceed 34 percent
which is highest in the region according to World Bank data. NEA has lost
billions of rupees. The losses are caused by bad equipment, poor maintenance,
and energy theft.
Power
and Communication Scenario of some countries
S.No
|
Country
|
Electricity Consumption Per Capita KWh 2013
|
Transmission and
Distribution losses % of Output 2013
|
Fixed Telephone
Subscription per 100
people 2014
|
Mobile Cellular
Subscription per 100
people 2014
|
Population covered by
mobile Cellular Network %
|
Telecom
Revenue
% of GDP 2014
|
1
|
Nepal
|
128
|
31
|
3
|
82
|
80
|
4.5
|
2
|
Nigeria
|
142
|
15
|
0
|
78
|
99
|
N/A
|
3
|
Pakistan
|
450
|
17
|
3
|
73
|
82
|
1.9
|
4
|
Sri Lanka
|
526
|
10
|
12
|
103
|
98
|
1.7
|
5
|
UK
|
5407
|
8
|
52
|
124
|
100
|
1.7
|
6
|
USA
|
12988
|
6
|
40
|
110
|
100
|
3.4
|
7
|
World avg.
|
3104
|
8
|
15
|
97
|
97
|
2.4
|
8
|
India
|
765
|
18
|
2
|
74
|
93
|
1.8
|
9
|
China
|
3762
|
6
|
18
|
92
|
99
|
1.8
|
10
|
Bangladesh
|
293
|
13
|
1
|
80
|
99
|
1.9
|
11
|
Iceland
|
54799
|
2
|
51
|
111
|
99
|
1.8
|
Source
[9]
References:
[1]
BP, Renewable Energy – 2015 in Review statistical review of world energy Energy
Economics BP Global, 2015 www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/renewable-energy.html.
[2]
“Government of Nepal Water and Energy Commission Secretariat Energy Sector
Synopsis Report,” WECS, 2010
[3]
USAID, “Nepal Hydropower Development Program (NHDP),” 2015
[4]
Government of Nepal Portfolio Performance Review (NPPPR) 2015
[5]
R Pageni “My Republica - NEA’s annual loss to Rs 11.57 billion,”
2016
[6]
“NPRN Nepal Policy Research Network,” 2016
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